- FAMRI Center
With half the "extra" votes counted, Philip Morris and Reynolds' lead on Prop 29 has been cut by nearly half
At 4:43 am June 7, the morning after the election, the Secretary of State showed Philip Morris and Reynolds leading on Prop 29, with 50.7% no vs. 49.2% yes on Prop 29, a spread of only 63,176 votes, with about 1 million uncounted mail-in votes.
As of 5:55 pm on June 11, the Secretary of State showed that, with about half the votes counted, the cigarette companies' lead had narrowed to 37,096 votes, with 50.4% no to 49.6% yes.
I did a county-by-county analysis, using the election day returns to predict post-election returns (using linear regression), then estimated the number of yes votes remaining based on the number of uncounted votes by county. The result shows a very narrow loss of 29, but the difference is well below the "margin of error" of the statistical estimates.
It's still too close to call.